A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
